After starting 2018 with an increase, the price of gold wallowed at a low level for several months in the middle of the year. Commerzbank analysts point to the strengthening of the US dollar due to a rise in the Fed’s interest rates, as the cause of the yellow price is dimming. In addition, the surge in the stock market contributed to lowering the price of gold.
Weakening currencies of developing countries also contributed, because it has reduced the amount of gold demand in the largest eams consumer countries such as China and India. This is because the strengthening of the dollar makes the price of gold more expensive in their currency units.
But entering the last two months of 2018, the price of gold began to rise and move stably. This situation is in line with the waning market expectations of the Fed’s rate hike in 2019. In the Outlook report released earlier in December 2018, Commerzbank argues that:
“The performance of gold prices in 2018 seems to be largely determined by the Fed’s monetary policy.”
Projected Price of Precious Metals in Commerzbank Version 2019
Commerzbank estimates that the price of gold will reach an average of $ 1,250 per ounce in the first two quarters in 2019. But then, it will rise to $ 1,300 in the third quarter of 2019. “We expect gold prices to rise to $ 1,350 per troy ounce by the end of 2019 , “Commerzbank said.
“The price of precious metals will rise next year, mainly due to the weakening US dollar due to the cycle of rising interest rates that began to reach the end,” Commerzbank wrote.
On the other hand, silver (Silver) is called Commerzbank as a metal whose performance is comparable to gold, although it will not always be better than gold when the market is bullish. Silver prices are expected to reach an average of $ 14.50 in the first quarter of 2019, $ 15 in the second quarter, and $ 15.50 in the third quarter.
“We expect silver prices to rise to $ 16 per troy ounce by the end of 2019, although that will still make the gold to silver ratio remain at a high level of 84,” the bank said. The ratio in question is the measurement of how many ounces of silver are needed to buy an ounce of gold.
Platinum is expected to be at the level of $ 800 at the beginning of the year, then rise to $ 900 at the end of 2019. Meanwhile, Palladium, which is currently rising, is expected to fall to $ 1,000, and only slightly rise to $ 1,100 by the end of 2019.
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